Purpose

Prerequisites

1. SIT Levels: You have finished setting the SIT (Sales In Target) levels per distributor and product. This defines the expected Sales In levels for each scenario.

Preparation

1. Create/Edit the scenario you wish to run the simulation for.

1. Associating Scenario with a Supply Plan
1. Ensure that the scenario is associated with the appropriate supply plan.
2. If not already imported, upload the supply plan scenario by uploading it in the ETL screen.

Running the Simulation

1. Go to the SIT screen and locate the scenario that you want to simulate.

1. Click on the “Check Icon” adjacent to the scenario name, or click the “Run Simulation” button in the scenario dropdown menu.

1. This action triggers the simulation process with the following steps:
1. Validate Sales In
1. SIMCEL performs a sanity check on Sales In by checking if any negative value exists.
2. A popup warning may appear to inform you about the exclusion of negative values. If this occurs, click "OK" to continue, or “Cancel” if you would prefer adjusting your SIT parameters.

2. Run Simulation:
1. Initial Stock Determination: The simulation begins by determining the initial stock level by considering the closing stock of the period before the simulation start date.
2. Sales and Inventory Simulation:
• For each month, the tool adds the supply quantity to the beginning inventory.
• The resulting inventory level is compared with the Unconstrained Sales In to determine demand fulfillment.
• If the inventory level meets or exceeds the unconstrained demand, the Constrained Sales In equals the Unconstrained Sales In. If not, it is limited to the available stock.
• The closing stock for the month is calculated as (Opening stock + Supply quantity - Constrained Sales In).
3. Metrics Calculation
• SIMCEL calculates all the metrics used to generate the simulation output and atomic KPIs.
• This ensures that all metrics accurately reflect the impact of supply constraints on distributor demand fulfillment.
4. Simulation Output
• Once the simulation is complete, you can access the output files of each scenario. These include:
• Simulation Sales In: Contains Constrained Sales In data for each distributor.
• Demand Fulfillment Metric: Breaks down distributor demand into individual orders, showing fulfillment status.
• Detailed Inventory Metrics: Provides a comprehensive record of inventory levels, including opening and closing stocks, quantities received, shipped, and any adjustments.
• Atomic KPIs: Offers granular data, including product details, distributor information, and location data, for in-depth analysis.
5. Interpreting KPIs
• By navigating to the Business Explorer page you can review the performance KPIs generated by SIMCEL.
6. Adjusting Plans Based on Insights
• Use the insights gained from the simulation to make necessary adjustments to your supply and demand plans.

Notes

• The “Check Icon” in the SIT screen only appears when the user makes some changes to the SIT parameters. If the user does not want to make any changes, or simply just wants to trigger the simulation without navigating to SIT page, they can click on the “Run Simulation” button in the scenario’s menu.

• A yellow circle with an exclamation mark, will appear when the simulation is running for a scenario.

Constrained SIT

1. Constrained Sales Out
• This metric represents the sales to end customers, considering the available supply from distributors after accounting for constraints.
• It indicates how much of the distributor's demand can be fulfilled based on the available inventory.

2. Constrained Closing Stock
• This metric shows the inventory levels at the end of each period after meeting the constrained sales in.
• It helps in understanding the remaining stock and planning for future supply needs.

3. Constrained Stock in Trade (SIT)
• This metric reflects the quantity of stock currently at the distributors expressed in days of sales.
• It provides insights into the inventory levels in a normalized way.